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In their June 2 letter, 39 members of Congress state that "further delay risks sacrificing the entire Colombian market to U.S. competitors." In reality, that "entire" market will represent (about two decades down the line after full implementation of the FTA) less than a 0.05 percent increase in U.S. gross domestic product, and the International Trade Commission predicts that the FTA will have "minimal or no effect on output or employment for most sectors in the U.S. economy." While the Colombia FTA would likely confer few benefits on U.S. workers, its effect on Colombian workers would be severely negative. In particular, the FTA would be devastating to rural agricultural laborers, who constitute 20 percent of the country’s employment, provide 40 percent of its domestic food consumptionand generate 8 percent of Colombia’s GDP. By tearing down barriers to U.S. agricultural products, the FTA would put Colombia’s farmers in competition with giant U.S. agri-business firms subsidized by tax dollars. It is widely expected that thousands of rural workers would be displaced as cheap U.S. farm products — particularly rice, corn and beans — flood Colombia. Oxfam Colombia estimates that at least 15,000 rural jobs will be lost and small farmers’ incomes, which average less than $3.90 per day, will be reduced by almost half. This means that the FTA is not just a bad deal for Colombia’s workers, but also for U.S. taxpayers — who would not only pay to subsidize U.S. agricultural products exported to Colombia, but would also foot the bill for increased security aid to Colombia (already a hefty $7.9 billion since 1996) when the displaced farmers turn to coca production or paramilitary employment to survive, perpetuating Colombia’s bloody civil war. Rather than supporting an ally, passage of the FTA may actually increase instability in Colombia. The FTA should be kept on ice until President-elect Santos can prove that he is more than just Uribe’s protégé; he must improve respect for human and labor rights in Colombia. The U.S. should also insist that Santos shows that he has a plan to offset the destabilizing impacts of the FTA. Only when these conditions are met should Congress give the deal with Colombia another look.
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